Is CPI An Inappropriate Backward-Looking Indicator Right Now?
For several months now, I’ve wondered if there are people who just want to drive the economy into a recession. They say that the price of food is too high, the price of homes is too high, and the price of energy is too high. They point to the annual CPI (Consumer Price Index) to show that year-over-year inflation was too high.
I’m going to suggest here that while they are right, they are also wrong. This is another bias that was caused by actions taken by the federal government during the height of the COVID pandemic. But the important thing to understand is that these were not necessarily long-term trends, but merely spikes. If there were spikes in costs, then a backward-looking year-over-year analysis can give the wrong impression. I am going to suggest that this is the case below, so keep reading.
During the height of the COVID pandemic, two things occurred that pumped a large amount of money into the economy at the same time people were staying at home and spending less money. First, there the Federal government issued several stimulus checks to Americans during the pandemic. At the same time, people were ‘afraid’ to go out and risk exposure to Covid, so they ‘banked’ the money in many cases instead of going out to spend it. Why did they bank it?
Initially, the government and the CDC warned people that it could take years to find a vaccine for Covid and that the lockdowns and mask requirements could last equally as long. People in office jobs were told to work from home to minimize their exposure to others who might be carrying the Covid virus. As people set up offices in their homes, they did spend some of the money to buy electronic equipment such as computers, printers, better Wi-Fi, etc. And remember the run on toilet paper, paper towels, cleaning supplies, and other things. Some people even decided that if they could work from home, they could work from anywhere. Thus, many abandoned the major cities to move further out to the suburbs and rural areas driving up the prices of homes and putting pressure on the construction of new homes (which temporarily drove up the price of lumber). Also, when they moved out of the city, they found that they now needed a car to get around because they no longer had access to public transportation, driving up the price of used cars. Why buy a used car? Simply because new cars were getting harder to make because of chip shortages due to issues with imports. Do you remember the problems with ships sitting out at sea because they could not dock to unload?
While all of this was going on, the Federal government decided to raise the minimum wage of government workers to $15 per hour. This was estimated to raise nearly 1 million people out of poverty. While on the surface that sounds good, it does not consider the ripple effects of non-government workers now also demanding at least $15 per hour. Then that wage increase begins to ripple up through the higher wage earners, earners who may have greater skills that they either learned on the job over many years or paid for through technical training. Obviously, they could not earn the same amount as before if others with less training or education were getting a bump in their earnings. So, they too demanded more, or they jumped jobs to other companies who were willing to pay them more. Free enterprise, right?
As more workers demanded greater salaries, the costs faced by companies to provide services or products also increased. Their costs also increased because of supply issues. Remember the problems at the ports? To maintain their profit margins, they were forced to raise prices. Many companies resisted such increases if they could but eventually, they all had to increase prices. Small businesses were especially hard hit. Many businesses closed and are still closing today. Others, like restaurants, raised their prices by as much as 30-40% as they struggled to attract and keep staff. As prices rose though, fewer people went out to eat. Many mid-range restaurants saw their full dining rooms start to empty. To cover their fixed costs, they had to raise their prices as well.
Finally, the Federal Reserve stepped in to try to lower inflation which by the beginning of 2022 had started to spike at over 1% month over month which if it continued for a year would imply over a 12% annual increase in prices (See the chart in Figure 1 below which lists the CPI (Consumer Price Index) values by month and shows what an annualized rate would be based on that month’s increase (which is a bias that assumes that what is true today will be true going forward) and what the increase over the prior year (year-to-year, a backward-looking bias) was. Of course, this is a lagging indicator. The sudden jumps in the monthly CPI due to the factors mentioned above as well as others gave the impression of runaway inflation. This continued as you can see through June 2022. Table 1 below shows the monthly CPI Index from the US Department of Labor. The next column shows the rate of increase from the previous month. The reported annual rate of inflation from the same month the prior year. Finally, the last column shows the monthly rate of change in the CPI multiplied by 12 which shows the inflation if the entire year going forward had the same rate as the current month.
The Federal Reserve only has a single tool to fight inflation, which is to raise interest rates. So, inflation rates quickly rose 75 basis points each month for several months. (There are 100 basis points in 1%. Therefore, they were raising interest rates by 0.75% each month.) This interest rate is the amount that commercial banks can charge each other overnight for funds loaned to each other. Of course, this influences other interest rates from mortgages, to CDs, and even the Federal Treasury bond market. The way that this slows the economy and inflation is by making it harder for companies to borrow money to expand, to pay for raw materials, to pay rent, and even to pay salaries. While the Federal Reserve hopes that rising interest rates cool the economy by forcing companies to cut back on salaries and growth plans, it can also drive small businesses to close. This is where much of the fear of recession enters the picture as small privately held companies cannot obtain funds to help cover their expenditures as higher product prices discourage buyers of those products.
The result of this will be a shrinking of the economy, a consolidation of smaller businesses either directly or indirectly into larger businesses, increased unemployment, a slowing of wage increases, and in the extreme case a reduction in wages by those who just want to keep their jobs. How much will this affect the price of goods at the store? I don’t know other than some prices will retreat at least a bit. However, I have no hope for prices to fall back to what they were at the start of 2020.
Okay, for those of you who understand all of this, you are probably thinking that you are glad that you are not responsible for setting fiscal policy. I agree. But these were exceptional circumstances that started with what history may label ill-advised stimulus payments combined with what we hope was a rare health emergency. Of course, that is looking backward too. Perhaps if it had been foreseen that the Covid pandemic would not be as bad as many feared (on a percentage basis, the 1917-1918 Spanish Flu was far worse. See my post: Worse than the Spanish Flu?) or that vaccines would have been developed as quickly as they were, then a slower more cautionary approach to the situation might have been prudent.
While what was done is done, we may want to be sure that we do not overreact again as the inflationary spike falls back down. The fact is, for the last 6 months, the month-over-month CPI has retreated substantially and has recently dipped into negative territory. At the same time, the annual CPI number (which remember is backward looking) is dropping those high monthly CPI increases from the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. This tells us that the annual CPI number which the news constantly throws out as an indication that inflation is still too high is not only wrong but counterproductive. The important measure when there is a spike in any number is to look at the rate of change over a brief period of time. For this reason, I do not fear inflation at this point. Rather, we will experience some level of recession as the numbers settle back down due to FED policies as long as those who only watch the economy in their rear-view mirror do not overreact again and there are no more major bumps.